Big Ten Tournament Analysis

I will add more thought to this Thursday morning, but I want to get my thoughts out there before the games start, so that when I pick all 10 games correctly, people cannot say that I cheated.

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THURSDAY'S GAMES

Game #1: #8 Penn State vs. #9 Northwestern

People like to talk about it being so difficult to beat a team three times in one year...I say hogwash. It will be ugly...if I had to handicap the game, the over/under would be 114 1/2.

WINNER: Penn State

Game #2: #7 Michigan vs. #10 Minnesota

Minnesota's season can be broken into two sections...the part without Vincent Grier and the part with Vincent Grier. Unfortunately, Vincent Grier will not be able to neutralize the inside-outside game that Michigan can play when they use their big men (Brown, Sims, Petway) effectively with their guard play (Horton and Harris).

WINNER: Michigan

Game #3: #6 Michigan State vs. #11 Purdue

The rest of the conference got a little gift when Michigan State was forced to play a Thursday game. I see no reason why the Spartans will not dominate a continually depleted Purdue squad.

WINNER: Michigan State

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FRIDAY'S GAMES

Game #4: #1 Ohio State vs. #8 Penn State

Again, this is another classic mismatch. A rested Ohio State team should be able to dismantle a physically weak Penn State team

WINNER: Ohio State

Game #5: #4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Indiana

This game is the biggest wild card so far. Both Indiana and Wisconsin have played Dr. Jeckyl and Hr. Hyde all season. Indiana seems to have pulled it back together after Mike Davis announced his resignation, but ahve looked pretty awful at times, including a terrible loss at Wisconsin. The Badgers are very similar. They started hot but are only 5-8 after losing two of their big men (Landry and Stiemsma) to academics. Someone has to win, and the team that decided to show up in the correct incarnation will do it. I really hope if is Wisconsin (for obvious reasons) but I think Marco Killingsworth is starting to re-emerge and will dominate the physically soft and depleted Wisconsin big men.

WINNER: Indiana

Game #6: #2 Iowa vs. #7 Michigan

Every tournament needs an "upset", and I think Michigan is the team to pull it off. Some out there think they need to make a strong showing in order to get a bid to the NCAA tourney. I think Coach Amaker will be able to sell the team on this and will come out and surprise an Iowa team that has some great history in the BTT.

WINNER: Michigan

Game #7: #3 Illinois vs. #6 Michigan State

I commented before that the rest of the Big Ten should be thankful that Michigan State has been forced to play on Thursday, and I think Illinois will be the big benefactor of this "extra" game. I see a very close, well-played game, with the power of the Illini overtaking the Spartans in the waning minutes.

WINNER: Illinois

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SATURDAY'S SEMI-FINALS

Game #8: #7 Michigan vs. #3 Illinois

Michigan will meet the same fate that their rival from East Lansing met the day before. They will hang with the Illini, but in the end, the big men will cancel each other out and the superior outside shooting of the Illini will prevail. This game and this result hinges on Dee Brown re-emerging from the "slump" he has been in (if you can call it that!)

WINNER: Illinois

Game #9: #1 Ohio State vs. #5 Indiana

The "home crowd" of the Hoosiers will play a factor, but I see the Buckeyes negating this advantage early in the second half. I see a close game throughout the first half, but the Buckeyes should be able to take over and handily win, being able to ready themselves for the big match-up on Sunday with the Illini.

WINNER: Ohio State

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SUNDAY'S FINAL

Game #10: #1 Ohio State vs. #3 Illinois

I see no real reason to preview this game, since the likelihood of me actually being correct is slim to none...probably closer to that latter! But...I will still at least pick a winner for this game. And the 2006 Big Ten Tournament Champion is...

ILLINOIS

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We will see how I do. As the games progress, I will attempt to continue to prognosticate the results, as well as what will happen when the brackets are announced on Sunday after the BTT.